Israel’s early elections could trigger new Gaza violence

The Gaza-Israeli border has been relatively calm for the past seven weeks, but the quiet appears about to end. Over the weekend of Dec. 21-22, four young Palestinian protesters were killed in clashes with Israeli troops along the border and Hamas' military leadership held back from responding. During last month's violence, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu exercised restraint after hundreds of rockets were fired from Gaza into Israel, his sights set on the planned operation to expose and block the Hezbollah tunnels on Israel’s northern border. Despite domestic criticism of his decision on Gaza, Netanyahu decided to give the arrangement with Hamas a chance. Given the tensions in the south of Israel and the complex set of clashing interests there, Hamas and Israel are occasionally forced to restrain themselves, not always successfully.

Back in Jerusalem Dec. 26, the Knesset voted to disband and the next elections were pushed up from November 2019 to April 9. The Hamas leadership understands that the cease-fire arrangement reached with Israel in November could collapse if a campaigning Netanyahu faces heavy election pressure on the issue. The Israeli political system might not accept Netanyahu conducting business as usual with Hamas. The organization is therefore preparing to challenge Netanyahu so that he does not renege on the deal that has already yielded a series of achievements for them.

I can testify firsthand to the extent that Israeli politics affect decisions by Hamas. On the eve of Operation Cast Lead in late December 2008, I covered the voyage of a small aid vessel that departed from Limassol in Cyprus bound for Gaza. The winds of war were already buffeting the Strip. When the boat docked in Gaza on Dec. 20, Abed Haniyeh, the son of Ismail Haniyeh, who was at the time the prime minister of Gaza and currently heads the organization’s political bureau, approached me. He wanted to know whether I thought Israel was heading for war against Gaza with the 2009 elections two months away.

“Are Defense Minister Ehud Barak and Prime Minister Ehud Olmert planning a war on Gaza to improve their standing within their parties?” he asked. The younger Haniyeh displayed an impressive understanding of political developments in Israel and knew that Barak, then Labor chair, was lagging behind in the polls. Like other top Hamas figures, he figured that Barak might want to improve his ratings by going to war and shifting the agenda in his favor.