“Ironically, when it comes to the issue of Iran in Syria, we have a rare case of Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, Benjamin Netanyahu, Hassan Rouhani and Bashar al-Assad all sharing a common interest,” a very senior military source told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity. “All of these leaders want Iranian forces to get out of Syria.”
When asked why he included Iranian President Rouhani in this list, the source said, “It was no mistake. Iran hasn’t had a uniform position for a very long time now. There is a fierce internal debate underway, and it is reflected on the ground. There’s a state within a state there. The Revolutionary Guards and the Quds Force are one entity, while the president and the official institutions are a second. The last thing that Rouhani wants is to continue investing the few billion dollars that Iran has in Syria, Lebanon and Yemen. He would prefer to bring all those troops home and invest in the Iranian economy instead, but [commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' Quds Force] Qasem Soleimani continues to enthrall the one person in charge of the big money and all the major decisions … [Supreme Leader] Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.”
This is how the heads of Israel’s security apparatus currently assess the Middle Eastern drama unfolding right before us around the clock and on live TV. Syrian President Assad has also had enough of the Iranian presence in his country. He sees them as more of a burden than an asset but is not yet strong enough to show them the door.
“This creates an ideal confluence of circumstances,” a senior Israeli security source says on condition of anonymity. “It is now possible to shrink the Quds Force and put it back in the box. Anyone listening in to the demonstrations in Iran will tell you that the most popular slogan being chanted there is ‘No to Syria! No to Gaza! No to Lebanon! Yes to Iran!’ We are in the middle of a historic process. If we don’t blink, there’s a good chance that this confluence of circumstances can be turned into the beginning of strategic change in the Middle East, which will force the Iranians to close up shop [in Syria] and go home instead of spreading.”
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