As many Syrian refugees have entered their seventh year in Lebanon, there is mounting pressure in Beirut to accelerate the process of returning them to their home country. However, the United States and the international community continue to curb this impulse by arguing that Syria is not ready yet to facilitate such a large-scale return. The stakes are high domestically and regionally, as such steps could help break the Syrian regime’s regional isolation, particularly when it comes to connections through Beirut. 

Fearing a potential repeat of the long-term settlement of Palestinian refugees in Lebanon, the Lebanese authorities did not establish camps for the nearly 1.5 million displaced Syrians. According to Human Rights Watch, around 74% of Syrian refugees aged 15 and above lack legal status, which further restricts their access to work, education and health care. With the economic situation in Lebanon deteriorating and the Syrian war winding down, this issue is taking center stage in Beirut and will no doubt top the priorities facing the next Lebanese government.

Al-Monitor spoke with a wide range of officials, in Lebanon and abroad, who play a leadership role in addressing the return of Syrian refugees and who shared their insights on condition of anonymity. Moving forward, the Lebanese authorities plan to firmly raise this issue with concerned international partners, citing the growing pressure on the national economy and demographic concerns in the country. Last month, the relationship between the Lebanese authorities and the United Nations refugee agency, UNHCR, was tested as nearly 500 Syrians left in 15 buses from the Shebaa Farms in southeast Lebanon to the Beit Jinn District southwest of Damascus, which was recaptured by the Syrian regime in December. Former Beit Jinn Mayor Haytham Hamoudi reportedly coordinated this return with both the Lebanese authorities and the Syrian regime.

The Lebanese officials were troubled that UNHCR representatives stood near the buses in the Shebaa Farms area on the day of the scheduled return in a last-ditch attempt to persuade the displaced Syrians not to make this move. In a public statement the UNHCR said it was not involved in the relocation process “considering the prevailing humanitarian and security situation in Syria." The Lebanese authorities fear the international community is preparing Lebanon for an eventual long-term settlement of these refugees. In return, international actors believe the authorities are rushing the return process without having the necessary guarantees. The main contrast between both sides is a matter of assessment, whether the Syrian war is largely over or not.