The prevailing assessment among Western media is that Iranian-backed Hezbollah emerged the winner from the Lebanese parliamentary elections held May 6. There are, however, nuances that should be taken into consideration when interpreting the electoral outcome.

First, as recent days have demonstrated, Hezbollah loyalists can resort to coercion at any time to intimidate rivals and remind those concerned that with or without elections, the movement controls the ground. As seen in the May 2008 clashes in Beirut between Hezbollah and p.p1 {margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 14.0px Calibri; -webkit-text-stroke: #000000} span.s1 {font-kerning: none} forces associated with the Future Movement, however, Hezbollah’s ability to thoroughly trample rivals is limited and comes with high risks. Foremost, an unstable Lebanon jeopardizes Hezbollah’s safety net at home, hence the goal of the Shiite armed group is to manage the political system rather than to subjugate it. The 2018 elections are not expected to alter these dynamics.

Second, while it is true that the newly elected parliament is in some ways “Hezbollah friendly,” this comes with a caveat. In the big picture, the principal Lebanese political figures will not likely raise the issue of Hezbollah’s weapons, because they all are focused on the domestic power struggle. The caveat is that to avoid a backlash, the Shiite group has to remain neutral in the political battle among the ruling class.

More than half of the current parliament — the Future Movement, Free Patriotic Movement, Lebanese Forces and Progressive Socialist Party — has in the past few years either been critical or not publicly supportive of Hezbollah’s regional agenda. The Shiite coalition of Hezbollah and Amal and their core allies now have a one-third blocking vote of 43 seats, which allows them to veto any legislation that goes against Hezbollah’s interest.