If the Israeli F-16 fighter jet had been struck by the Syrian missile just a few kilometers north of where it was actually hit Feb. 10, it is quite possible that Israel, Iran, Syria and Lebanon would be at war today. In fact, the plane was hit over Israeli territory (the air force does not have to fly over targets in Syria in order to bomb them), and its pilots parachuted out safely — one of them seriously wounded — in Israeli territory, preventing a serious escalation of events. There is nothing in Israel that hits a raw nerve more than when its soldiers are taken prisoner. The last time that happened along the northern front, the Second Lebanon War broke out in 2006. On Feb. 10, we were very close to the third.
For Israel, this was a day of fighting against Iran and Syria, who had the support of Hezbollah and the passive involvement of Russia. According to the Iranian-Shiite coalition, this day of fighting led to what Hezbollah called “a new strategic era.”
From an Israeli perspective, the results were the exact opposite. Israel announced that it would continue to operate over Syria and Lebanon in order to prevent Iran from establishing itself in these regions. This was the first time that the Israeli and Iranian armies clashed openly, rather than through proxies or under the radar. It was also the first time since 1982 that an Israeli aircraft was downed by Syria’s anti-aircraft batteries. And it was the first time in the last 36 years that Israel launched a far-reaching aerial attack on the Syrian air defense system. All of this was the result of Iranian determination to gain a foothold in Syria, and Israeli determination to prevent that from happening. One determined nation against another could result in a major conflagration, but luckily, there is a certain energy operating in the region to cool down situations like this when they happen. None of the players in this dangerous game needs a war right now: not Iran, not Israel, not Hezbollah, not Assad of course, and certainly not the Russians. And so the whole thing ended with just a single day of fighting — at least for now.
On the night of Feb. 9-10, at 4:30 a.m., an unmanned Iranian aircraft penetrated Israel by way of Jordan. The aircraft was picked up and followed by Israeli radar, until it broke west over the Beit Shean Valley (just south of the Sea of Galilee) and penetrated Israeli territory.
AL-MONITOR All-Access gives you unlimited access to all our journalism, the full Daily Briefing, exclusive interviews, premium newsletters, and live events — for less than $2/week.
