Lebanese call for Hariri's return 

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman may have the impression that the United States, and perhaps Israel, has his back in his recent statements and actions, which are increasing the risk of miscalculation or conflict. Absent some clear red lines, the Trump administration may find itself on a slippery slope toward confrontation with Iran or unrest in Lebanon because of decisions made in Riyadh, not Washington.

The actions of the past week, including claims of two "acts of war" against Saudi Arabia from Yemen and Lebanon, and the arrests and asset seizures of over 200 prominent Saudi princes and businessmen, come as "the kingdom is at a crossroads," as Bruce Riedel writes. "Its economy has flatlined with low oil prices; the war in Yemen is a quagmire; the blockade of Qatar is a failure; Iranian influence is rampant in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq; and the succession is a question mark. It is the most volatile period in Saudi history in over a half-century." 

Despite this volatility and checkered record, US President Donald Trump expressed "great confidence" that King Salman bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud and the crown prince "know exactly what they are doing" when news of the purge broke. Mohammed may have been emboldened when the White House blamed Iran for the introduction of missiles, and more, in Yemen, which the United States will raise with the UN Security Council. In Lebanon, Mohammed probably hoped that Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri's resignation would back the charge that the country is Hezbollah-occupied territory. Thus, the kingdom would capitalize on the Trump administration's increased focus on Hezbollah as a terrorist organization, including sanctions legislation making its way through the Congress, as Jack Detsch reports. Israel, preoccupied with Hezbollah's expanded capabilities as a result of the war in Syria, would also be a silent partner in Saudi efforts to isolate and pressure Hezbollah.