We wrote here last month that US-Russian coordination on Syria could “be a catalyst for a new alignment that brings Turkey closer to Syria and Iran, while testing the limits and extent of Moscow’s influence among the regional players.”

Amberin Zaman, reporting this week on the “unprecedented” visit to Ankara of Maj. Gen. Mohammad Hossein Bagheri, Iran’s chief of general staff, writes that “as the United States and Russia seek ways to end the conflict and — as Iran and Turkey see things — cut deals behind their backs, Tehran and Ankara seem eager to project unity.”

Anton Mardasov adds that Moscow is seeking to maximize its leverage in Syria, including relative to Tehran. “Russia is currently opting for agreements beyond the peace talks in Astana, Kazakhstan — that is, behind Iran’s back,” Mardasov writes. “Examples include the de-escalation zone in southwest Syria that Russia negotiated with the United States in Amman, Jordan, as well as de-escalation zones in eastern Ghouta and northern Homs, both of which were negotiated in Cairo.”

“Since eastern Aleppo was seized, Russia has definitely increased its sway over the region. Russia turned the tide of war and helped the regime survive. However, over the war years, Tehran has gained momentum and built up a multilayer presence in Syria that includes local Shiite militants,” Mardasov explains. “These groups include Syrian units, offshoots of the Lebanese National Ideological Resistance in Syria and Syrian Islamic Resistance groups (sometimes called Iraqi Hezbollah), the units of the Local Defense Forces in Aleppo and the National Defense Forces, comprising Alawites, Sunnis and other Syrians backed by Iranian military advisers and partially or fully funded by Iran. New Iranian cultural centers and Shiite propaganda among the locals are Tehran’s soft-power instruments. This strategy heightens ethnic and sectarian tensions in the region, which helps spread [Islamic State] and [Hayat Tahrir al-Sham] propaganda.”