Turkey’s Idlib quagmire

Fehim Tastekin reports how both the CIA’s decision to end a covert program to fund Syrian armed groups and the Gulf-Qatar crisis may force an eventual showdown with al-Qaeda-linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in Idlib.

This column wrote back in March, “While the United States is consumed with planning for unseating the Islamic State (IS) in Raqqa, Idlib may prove a comparable or perhaps even more explosive fault line because of the blurred lines among anti-Western Salafi groups such as Ahrar al-Sham, which is backed by Turkey, and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham [which is linked to al-Qaeda]."

Tastekin provides unusual detail on Turkey’s options in Idlib. “US, Turkish and Saudi intelligence officials in the joint operations centers had taken some steps to improve the field situation after al-Qaeda fighters gained strength in Idlib,” Tastekin writes. “In February, US, Saudi and Turkish intelligence services called in leaders of local groups and told them that unless they could form a workable joint front, the joint operations center would cut off assistance, which included fighters' salaries, light weapons, ammunition and anti-tank missiles. Faced with this ultimatum, 17 organizations declared they had united under the Northern Front Operations Room.”