The winds of change blowing through the Labor Party can be deceptive, even though Knesset members Amir Peretz and Avi Gabbay just advanced to the second round in the party's leadership primaries. Regardless of whether the party members elect Gabbay, a political novice, who only joined the party eight months ago, or a more experienced politician such as Peretz, who once served as defense minister, neither of them will be the dark horse of the next election. Assuming that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is, once again, the Likud's candidate for prime minister in the next election, there is no reason for him to worry about the Labor's turnabout.

First of all, the party failed to recruit a new candidate with real public and security standing, such as former Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi, to defeat the right and win power. Furthermore, there already is a large and powerful centrist party (Yesh Atid) headed by Yair Lapid, who has proved his mettle as a fairly talented survivor. Given these conditions, Peretz or Gabbay will have to transform the Labor Party into the largest platform in the center-left bloc, and this is no simple task.

In 2002, Amram Mitzna, a major general in the reserves, took the party by storm. Yet he walked away from the January 2003 election with just 19 seats. At the time, 15 seats in the center-left bloc preferred the centrist Shinui Party, headed by Tommy Lapid. In the ensuing elections, the Labor Party failed to take power again and again. It fell into a deep crisis of identity, set off in search of itself, and lost entire communities of voters along the way. When it brought back former Prime Minister Ehud Barak as leader in 2009, it actually reached the lowest point in its entire history, winning just 13 seats. In contrast, Tzipi Livni of the centrist Kadima Party (now defunct) overwhelmed the center-left bloc by winning 28 of its seats.

Shelly Yachimovich also failed to prove herself to be the party's savior in 2013, even though she offered a refreshing new brand. In that election, a new centrist party (Yesh Atid) headed by Tommy Lapid's son Yair swept up 19 seats. In the last election, in 2015, Isaac Herzog as the Labor Party leader and a strategic merger with Livni was not enough either. Even though Lapid's party showed some decline, it still managed to win 11 of the center-left bloc's seats.