While Israeli security figures look for the trigger of the Sunni axis' surprise charge against Qatar, they ignore the recent reports of how Russian hackers supposedly planted fake news items on a Qatari news agency's website. Instead, they focus on the border region where three states — Syria, Iraq and Jordan — meet.
"Take note," a senior Israeli security official told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity. "Just this week, the United States attacked a convoy of Syrian forces in that sensitive region. It happened at the exact same time as events were unfolding in the Persian Gulf, when the Sunni states broke diplomatic relations with Qatar. This was the second American attack in that same region in the past two weeks. It is a much more dramatic move than it seems from the outside, yet it is passing beneath the radar. It represents a full-force change in US policy in the Middle East."
The source added that the Americans went "over the heads" of the Russians and made it clear that they have no intention of allowing the Shiite axis to dominate the vital border region between the three countries. It seems as though the United States intends to block the establishment of Shiite territorial continuity from the Gulf to the Mediterranean, even if it requires force. Jordan's stability, Israeli interests and most of all Saudi fears of Iran have become the foundations of US foreign policy.
Israeli intelligence has yet to fully decipher what took place behind the scenes. Who planned, who coordinated and who led this complex attack against Qatar that surprised the Middle East and the entire world? How did they carry it out? The current assessment is that the event at which US President Donald Trump appeared before the leaders of the Arab states in Riyadh on May 20 was the watershed. As a senior Israeli official with access to Security Cabinet discussions told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity, "The sword dance that we witnessed there was no accident. Trump actually launched the formation of this large, pragmatic Sunni alliance, threw all his weight against Iran and made it clear to the Saudis and their allies that the Obama era is over. You can come out of your bunker. You can stick your head out. Now it's time to restore order in your own backyard."
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