Israel keeps tabs on Putin-Assad alliance
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s backing of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad reinforces the latter and might lead him to adopt a stronger approach vis-a-vis Israel.
According to prevailing Israeli assessments, there is no expectation that the Assad regime will fall in the foreseeable future. In addition, Israeli experts believe that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has completed the task of securing the survival of the Syrian heartland, that is, having a government-controlled corridor based in the capital of Damascus that climbs north to Alawistan (the Alawi enclave in Latakia) to the port city of Latakia, with the cities of Aleppo and Homs also in his hands. Now he is attempting to spread his reach to Deir ez-Zor.
Over the last year, there has been a clear evolution in the map of shattered Syria. The Syrian heartland under Assad's control has been growing and expanding at a steady pace, while those areas under rebel control have been shrinking consistently. Even those territories under Islamic State control have been gnawed away quickly. Israeli experts estimate that the war in Syria will continue into the foreseeable future, but that the balance of power at this point clearly favors Assad.
In Israel, those territories under Assad's control are now known as Assadistan. This is a new, narrower, shrunken Syria. It may be much smaller than the historic Syria, but nonetheless, it is here to stay. There is, however, one caveat: "Without [Russian President Vladimir] Putin, there is no Assad," as one senior Israeli expert told Al-Monitor, on condition of anonymity. "The one prerequisite for Assad's survival in power is Putin's goodwill."
A senior Israeli source told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity, "The way that Putin pushed the United States out of the Middle East and became the dominant power in the region will be studied one day in schools of strategy." Putin's adventurism in dealing with the Obama administration has already been covered here. The fact that, in the end, President Barack Obama never attacked the chemical weapons systems in Syria contributed significantly to Russia's transformation into the dominant power in the region and to Assad's survival. Putin had recognized the time corridor connecting the Obama and Trump administrations as a weak link where he could drive a wedge and establish facts on the ground before the new administration could develop a new position and approach.
