Can Trump save face for Erdogan?

The Trump administration’s decision May 9 to provide arms to the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) does not bode well for the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Washington on May 16.

On a visit to Washington last week, Erdogan’s closest national security advisers could not dissuade their US counterparts from taking the widely anticipated step, which Turkey has vehemently opposed. Ankara regards the YPG as the Syrian extension of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which both Ankara and Washington consider a terrorist organization.

While Erdogan’s hope for a new page in US-Turkey relations may have been buoyed by Trump's being the only Western leader to congratulate him on his April 16 referendum victory, the prospects for a successful summit will depend on bromides about US-Turkey solidarity against both the Islamic State and the PKK. In Syria, keeping Turkey from complicating the US strategy to take Raqqa may, as we noted last week, depend in good part on Moscow’s good offices.