Two polls released March 10 gave a party headed by former Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon a disappointing four to six seats. It is hardly the result that Ya'alon was hoping for, but anyone rushing to write him off is doing so prematurely. On March 13, Ya'alon announced that he was finally leaving Likud. Over the next few weeks, he is expected to launch his own right-wing party, along with a list of supporters. The party will advocate respect for the Supreme Court and the Israel Defense Forces' rules of engagement. He will also present a diplomatic, security and civil agenda to serve as an alternative to that of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud. Quite a few people on the right, including in Likud, will follow Ya'alon as soon as the party is established and begins an organized campaign. The consequences of this should be seen in future polls.

Leaving Likud and forming an independent party could turn out to be the best thing to ever happen to Ya'alon. He can now count himself among a respectable and rather large group of ministers who have quit Likud or Netanyahu's office to launch independent political careers. Some of them now hold senior portfolios in the government and positions of power opposite Netanyahu. In fact, almost all the more-important and prestigious portfolios in Netanyahu's government are not in Likud hands.

Yisrael Beitenu Chairman and Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman had been director general of the Prime Minister's Office during Netanyahu's first term (1996-99) before quitting and forming his own party. Though he now heads a small party with just six Knesset seats, he is the most senior minister in the government and is a steady political threat to Netanyahu while advocating for an independent diplomatic agenda. For instance, on March 13, in response to reports of relaunching negotiations with the Palestinians, Liberman once again released his plan for an exchange of territories and populations as the only way to reach an agreement.

The chairman of Kulanu, Finance Minister Moshe Kahlon, was the most popular minister from Likud until 2013, when he quit after a fight with Netanyahu and formed his own right wing-oriented party focused on social issues. It won 10 seats in the 2015 elections, after which Kahlon demanded and received an expanded Finance Ministry, because, like Liberman, he knows how to keep Netanyahu on a “short leash.” He also represents an independent agenda on socioeconomic issues near and dear to him, fighting regularly with the prime minister in his efforts to advance them.