For months now, the ouster of Islamic State (IS) forces from Libya’s coastal city of Sirte has been touted as imminent, yet like the light at the end of the tunnel that is within sight but out of grasp, complete victory against IS continues to evade the Misratan-led, Bunyan al-Marsus (BM) forces, and their US allies.

There is still little doubt that a victory of some sort will be eventually won. In fact, before President Barack Obama leaves office, the United States may be able to claim that its aerial and training support have proved instrumental in ousting IS from Sirte. However, without a unified political solution in place through which Sirte’s battered infrastructure, public services and civilian way of life can be restored post-IS, any such victory may turn out to be very superficial. IS emerged in Sirte out of a Misratan occupation following the defeat of an al-Qaeda-linked jihadi group, Ansar al-Sharia, in 2013. The post-conflict stabilization was botched and both civilians in Sirte and Ansar al-Sharia fighters chafed under the Misratan yoke, the latter defecting wholesale to IS in 2015.

Is Sirte closer to being liberated?

IS forces are currently entrenched within the third residential area in northeast Sirte, and despite their limited numbers, the remaining IS fighters continue to inflict casualties on their Misratan opponents through sniper fire and explosive devices. On Oct. 7, BM forces, who are nominally aligned with the UN-brokered Government of National Accord (GNA), launched a fresh assault, which culminated in splitting the enclave. A BM media official, Ali al-Mabrouk, said, "The forces of Bunyan al-Marsus made some advances and completely [cut off] the 600-block area in Sirte." Nevertheless, at least 8 BM fighters were killed in this latest advance, while IS fighters still appear able to conduct attacks outside of their stronghold; on Oct. 2, a Dutch photojournalist was killed by sniper fire in an area of Sirte already supposedly "liberated" from IS forces. Furthermore, reports of fighting between BM forces and jihadis south of Sirte in recent weeks seems to confirm fears that IS fighters have been able to seep out of Sirte, and may therefore be able to regroup or assimilate into other jihadi groups elsewhere.