UN Syria envoy Staffan de Mistura said April 22 that the cessation of hostilities that began Feb. 26 “is still in effect. None of the sides have renounced to it. … But it is in great trouble if we do not act quickly.”

Speaking in London the same day, US President Barack Obama said that the cessation of hostilities is “fraying,” adding that although he has “always been skeptical about Mr. [Russian President Vladimir] Putin’s actions and motives inside of Syria … we are going to play this option out. If, in fact, the cessation falls apart, we’ll try to put it back together again even as we continue to go after ISIL [Islamic State].” The day before, in remarks in Riyadh with Saudi King Salman bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud, Obama said, “The cessation of hostilities is obviously under tremendous strain, including continued violations by the [Bashar al-] Assad regime. This violence is yet another reminder that there’s only one way to end this civil war, as our GCC [Gulf Cooperation Council] partners agree — a transitional governing body, a new constitution with free elections, including a transition away from Assad.” 

Press reports and US officials have blamed the erosion of the fragile cease-fire primarily on Iranian- and Russian-backed Syrian forces, while noting a buildup of Russian artillery around Aleppo in preparation for a likely offensive. No doubt the Syrian government is seeking to press its advantage, even as its delegation stays on in Geneva to continue the UN “proximity” talks. But the situation on the ground deserves a closer look.

The Economist notes that the Syrian government has gotten away with its attacks on Aleppo until now “in part because the opposition there is dominated by Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Qaeda’s affiliate in Syria, one of the terrorist groups excluded from the cease-fire, along with Islamic State (IS).” The highly regarded Institute for the Study of War reports that Ahrar al-Sham, Jaish al-Islam, the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and other armed groups had formed the Rad al-Mazalem Operations Room to undertake military operations against Syrian government positions in the Latakia region. The report also notes, “Salafi-Jihadist groups Jund al-Aqsa and the Turkestan Islamic Movement seized the village of Khirbet a-Naqous in the Sahl al-Ghab plains of northwestern Hama Province.” The Russian Ministry of Defense blamed Ahrar al-Sham for cease-fire violations around Latakia and Aleppo, and Jaish al-Islam for mortar attacks around Damascus.