How the Arab Spring impacted Iran

KASHAN, Iran — Some 190 kilometers (120 miles) south of Tehran lies the city of Kashan. There, a group of Iranian university lecturers who are also pro-reform activists gather around a dinner table in a traditional cafe near the old bazaar, which is famous for its carpets. Al-Monitor asked them, How do you see the developments of the Arab Spring and its repercussions for you and your country?

To Iranian Reformists, the Arab Spring is a significant matter. They see it as having had a positive impact on the West’s — including the United States’ — approach toward Iran. However, they also see it as having intensified sectarian divisions, ultimately strengthening conservatives in Iran.

One of the university lecturers, using the pseudonym “Agha,” told Al-Monitor, “We were skeptical about the outbreak of the so-called Arab Spring, its impact on the communities in which it unfolded as well as its repercussions on Iran’s internal scene and on our relations with neighboring and regional countries. Since the beginning of the uprisings … it was clear to us that tribal structures and rural mentalities, in the sociological sense, were still prevailing in the majority of these communities. Thus any potential revolution under such situations and circumstances surely lacked the elements of success to shift the prevailing political regime from autocracy to freedom and liberation. Rather, such revolutions will lead to long and chronic civil wars and attract foreign intervention. This is in addition to exclusionary power struggles between the rebels themselves and between all those whose appetites for power have been awakened by the fall of former rulers.”

Agha emphasized, “It was clear to us that these new conflicts caused by the Arab Spring will sooner or later take on a religious and ideological nature. This will further sow sedition among Sunnis and Shiites, which is neither in Iran’s best interest nor in favor of our vision of the Iranian state.”