Despite widespread media speculation about his attendance and even some inaccurate reports claiming it afterward, Saudi Arabia’s King Salman bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud did not go to Russia’s MAKS-2015 air show last week or meet with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin. What happened?

Putin invited Salman to Russia long ago and Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman accepted the invitation on the king’s behalf in a June meeting with the Russian leader. A few weeks later — fairly soon by normal diplomatic standards — Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir traveled to Moscow to meet with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov. Speaking to reporters following their meeting, Lavrov acknowledged that there were “still some differences regarding specific ways to reach a settlement in Syria” and said nothing about the king’s visit beyond confirming Putin’s invitation to him to “visit Russia at a convenient time.” Nevertheless, Russia’s government-run Sputnik website soon encouraged its readers to think that Salman could attend the arms expo, citing a defense industry source. This story in turn produced many Western media reports about Salman’s purported plans.

Broadly speaking, there are three possibilities in this situation. First, Russian and Saudi officials may have never really discussed a trip by Salman at this time. Second, they may have discussed it, but did not agree to do it or perhaps could not agree on how to do it. Third, they may have agreed to plan the visit and then one side or the other withdrew from the arrangement.

The meeting of the two foreign ministers is critical in assessing these three possibilities. The fact that Lavrov and Jubeir met so soon after Putin’s meeting with the deputy crown prince makes it quite unlikely that the visit was not on their agenda. Conversely, the fact that Lavrov and Jubeir did not themselves announce the visit after their meeting (or arrange for Jubeir to see Putin briefly for this purpose) suggests that Russian and Saudi officials did not reach any concrete understanding about the king’s travel to Russia for MAKS-2015.