On Feb. 16, the 20th chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz, will complete his four-year term and transfer the mantle of command to his heir, Maj. Gen. Gadi Eizenkot, who will be promoted to lieutenant general. As usual, the ceremony will be attended by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon, along with all the generals serving in the General Staff and other senior security officials. The question hanging over everyone at the event will be: Who will become defense minister after the general elections next month? Will Ya’alon remain in the position as most senior IDF officers want?

Two candidates for the position of defense minister have been keeping senior security officials and IDF officers awake at night. The first is Economy and Trade Minister Naftali Bennett, who considered himself a candidate for the position before he started his nosedive in the polls. The second, more surprising candidate is Foreign Minister Avigdor Liberman, who announced in a television interview Feb. 8 that he would only agree to enter the next coalition if he is appointed defense minister. Liberman’s announcement struck the IDF’s General Staff like lightning on a bright summer day. Now they are left wavering between him and Bennett, struggling to decide which is the lesser of two evils.

On the one hand, there is Bennett, who believes that Israel has no partner for peace, is opposed to any two-state solution, supports the continuation of massive construction in all the settlements and advocates a strong-arm security approach against Israel’s enemies. On the other hand, there is Liberman, who may be considered less radical when it comes to certain diplomatic issues (his diplomatic program includes the creation of a Palestinian state), but is much more extreme in everything to do with military conflicts. During Operation Protective Edge, Liberman consistently demanded the conquest of Gaza and the destruction of Hamas. To that end, he was sharply critical of the minimalist approach of Netanyahu and Ya’alon, who were ultimately satisfied with an operation to destroy the assault tunnels and nothing more.

As of now, it is impossible to tell which of these two men will in fact be appointed to the position. We have already noted how Bennett is plummeting in the polls, mainly because of the two-headed race emerging between Netanyahu and Zionist Camp Chair Isaac Herzog, together with his partner and co-chair Tzipi Livni. This race is taking a serious toll on all the parties, which are rapidly losing supporters to the two front-runners. In contrast, Liberman has already crashed in the polls. The well-publicized police investigation into senior members of his party, Yisrael Beitenu, on the eve of the elections, has taken its toll, and he is now expected to win about six seats, not much more than the threshold of four seats. Under these circumstances, it will be difficult for him to get a senior ministry such as the Ministry of Defense. It is also possible that Liberman will be the balance of power who can determine whether there will be a new coalition or torpedo the possibility by defecting to the rival camp. In such a situation, it is entirely possible that Netanyahu, or Herzog for that matter, will break down and appoint him to the position.