The death of Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz puts the Yemen crisis on the front burner for the king's successor Prince Salman. Abdullah's death comes on the heels of the resignation of Yemeni President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi, which is a major setback for US and Saudi diplomacy, a limited victory for Iran and a plus for al-Qaeda.
The situation in Sanaa is fluid and confused, but it is clear the Houthis have the upper hand. The Zaydi Houthi rebels who have all but deposed the pro-American government in Yemen this week have a slogan that reads, “Death to America, death to Israel, curses to the Jews and victory to Islam.” The collapse of Hadi's government, which openly supported US drone strikes in Yemen against al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) for the last couple of years, makes a pro-Iranian, anti-American, Shiite militia the dominant player in a desperately poor but strategically important country. The Bab al-Mandeb, the strait between Asia and Africa, is a choke point of global energy and geopolitics. The 33-year-old leader of the Houthis, Abdul Malik al-Houthi, gave a triumphal speech Jan. 20 promising an end to corruption and repression.
Iran has been providing arms, money and expertise to the Houthis since at least 2011, if not earlier; its diplomats have hailed the Houthis' success. But the Zaydis are not Iranian pawns nor partners like Hezbollah. They are an independent force. The Houthis' Zaydi faith is considered by many Iranian clerics as a disguised form of Sunni Islam. The Houthis have also been getting help from former President Ali Abdullah Saleh.
The goals of the Houthis are unclear. When their rebellion began in 2004 they wanted greater autonomy in their home province of Saada. Many suspect their goal now is to restore the Zaydi Imamate that ruled North Yemen until the 1962 revolution. In the civil war that followed the Saudis backed the Zaydi royalists against the Egyptian-backed republic. After 2004, the Saudis fought a series of border wars with the Houthis. In December 2009, a Royal Saudi Air Force bombing strike almost killed Abdul Malik al-Houthi.
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