Even now, as an extensive Israel Defense Forces (IDF) operation is bombing the Hamas tunnels in the Gaza Strip, one could risk concluding that Operation Protective Edge will not go down in the history books as one of Israel’s strategic achievements.

This assessment is based on a gauge developed by none other than Minister of Defense Moshe Ya’alon. As the chief of staff during the second intifada, Ya’alon coined the term “etched in their consciousness.” In an interview with Ari Shavit, which appeared in Haaretz in August 2002, Ya’alon described the main objective in the conflict with the Palestinians as “the very deep internalization by the Palestinians that terrorism and violence will not defeat us, will not make us fold.” If, he continued, that is not etched into the Palestinian consciousness by the end of that conflict, “we will have a strategic problem with an existential threat to Israel.” In his opinion, Israel had not faced a more important confrontation “since the War of Independence.”

To properly evaluate the chance that Operation Protective Edge has in meeting this special challenge, it is worth examining the achievements of earlier military operations and seeing what they were able to “etch” into the consciousness. Operation Defensive Shield in the West Bank in March 2002 did, in fact, contribute to a dramatic drop in local Palestinian involvement in acts of violence against Israel. But the Hamas victory in the elections to the Palestinian Legislative Assembly in January 2006 shows that the mark that Israel's strong hand etched on the Palestinian consciousness was superficial, if it even existed at all. The massive attack on the Gaza Strip during Operation Cast Lead (2008-2009) left 1,300 Palestinians dead, half of them innocent civilians, as well as over 5,000 wounded and tens of thousands homeless. Nevertheless, it failed to put a stop to rocket attacks on Israel. Four years later, after endless rocket fire, the IDF needed to engage in yet another round of “consciousness etching.” Operation Pillar of Defense in November 2012 claimed 169 victims' lives, including 68 helpless civilians: men, women and children.

Based on Ya’alon’s approach, the heavy price that the Palestinians paid and continue to pay should have eroded their support for Hamas, an organization that intentionally provokes Israel and brings calamity on them. However, a survey conducted by the Hebrew University's Harry S. Truman Institute in collaboration with the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (with support of the Ford Foundation and Konrad Adenauer Stiftung) just a few days after the operation ended, found that 80% of Palestinians considered the conflict to be a victory for Hamas. Some 60% of the respondents said they prefer Hamas' approach over the approach taken by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas to end the Israeli occupation and bring about the establishment of a Palestinian state. Furthermore, the survey found that if elections would have been held then, Hamas Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh would have been elected president of the Palestinian Authority, and Hamas would have won the elections to the Legislative Assembly.