Will Homs truce be repeated in Aleppo?
Hezbollah sources indicate that efforts are underway, including interventions by Iranian and Turkish authorities, to repeat the truce reached in Homs last month in Aleppo.
Sources close to Hezbollah told Al-Monitor that there were indications among the Syrian authorities and their allies that a huge development was underway in Aleppo. The same sources noted that military and political decision-makers did not rule out the possibility of waking up to surprising news. A deal over the lines of control of the Syrian army and its allies in the second-biggest Syrian city and their entry into all its neighborhoods could happen without significant battles.
The sources explained that this idea was not a theoretical one or an astrological analysis. It rather relied on a long series of on-the-ground military developments, on the one hand, and on the back-channel diplomatic negotiations and international talks on the other. The sources said the issue started weeks ago. In mid-May, several attempts at mediation to end the fighting in Homs were suddenly declared successful. It later appeared that secret negotiations had been underway between the Syrian authorities and the camp of their opponents. They wanted to conclude a deal that saw to the withdrawal of around 1,600 opposition militants from the old Homs neighborhoods, where fighting with the Syrian army was continuing.
The sources said the aforementioned Homs agreement wouldn’t have been concluded if it weren’t for the following negotiation methods: The regime forces’ slow and efficient advance toward the rebellious neighborhoods coupled with a secret diplomatic communication network, mainly along the Tehran-Ankara axis, and military pressure culminated in an agreement and in persuading the militants to withdraw. In other words, Iran persuaded Damascus while Turkey persuaded the military groups to accept the available offer proposed to them.
The sources noted that the negotiations that had started weeks earlier between Iran and Turkey aimed at achieving a settlement in Aleppo simultaneously with a settlement in Homs. However, the double offer that was presented by the Iranians was met with reservations from Turks, who preferred to limit the negotiations to Homs.
