It is reasonable to criticize experts in international affairs for failing to predict any of the momentous events of the past few decades. The fall of communism in Eastern Europe as well as the collapse of the Soviet Union and the "Arab Spring" all caught analysts by surprise. There are also cases, however, when the opposite is true and political Cassandras unanimously caution about something, but decision-makers simply dismiss them. Iraq is just one such case.

In the autumn of 2002, when it became clear that the George W. Bush administration was pushing for military action against then-Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, there was an effective consensus among Russian Orientalists. Save for a few negligible exceptions, they all unanimously asserted that such action would lead to chaos and ultimately to the disappearance of Iraq as a unified state. At all international conferences and in personal meetings, Russian specialists cautioned their American colleagues not to do it. Some of the interlocutors agreed; others nodded knowingly, while remaining unconvinced; while others still, especially those who worked directly with the US administration, shrugged their shoulders. There is no need to scare us, they'd say, the democratic transformation of the Middle East is inevitable, it has only to be encouraged.

After a year or two, however, against the background of bloody turmoil in Iraq, many of the optimists were forced to admit that the Russian skeptics had been right. Later, when some order was brought to Iraq along with the start of relatively democratic procedures, it again appeared that Moscow had exaggerated. Still, even then Russians did not place much faith in the future of Iraq. Most commentaries regarding the withdrawal of US forces from there boiled down to the fact that the United States had one task, namely to ensure that a democratic Iraq would not collapse immediately after the liberation from occupation, thus saving face.

The lack of confidence in Iraq’s prospects did not prevent Moscow from establishing relations with the Iraqi leadership, especially since democratic elections — as it could have been easily predicted on the basis of Iraq’s confessional structure — brought to power forces more in tune with Iran than with the United States. After Saddam's overthrow, it seemed that Russian oil companies, primarily Lukoil, had forever lost the Iraqi market and its resources. But gradually, they began to return and invest in previous projects such as the development of the major West Qurna Field. Separately, links were built with the Kurdish leadership. In 2012, an important deal was reached to sell weapons to Baghdad worth more than $4 billion, which visibly irritated Washington. The agreement had not even been sealed when a fight broke out over it. Nonetheless, Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki aimed for maximum diversification of economic and geopolitical relations to avoid being exclusively dependent on any of the major players.