Have Iraq’s Kurdish forces overcome their internal differences and decided to go to Baghdad with a unified voice, as they announced on May 17 at a meeting chaired by Kurdistan Region President Massoud Barzani?
Or have the controversies that followed the rise of the Change Movement in the Kurdistan region’s elections in 2013 at the expense of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), led by Jalal Talabani, cast a shadow on the nature of the Kurdish-Kurdish internal balances in Baghdad? These controversies include the post-2013 agreement whereby the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) would form a government in collaboration with the Change Movement, the PUK’s rejection of this agreement, and then the delay in forming a government until after the results of the Iraqi elections were announced.
This question found resonance before the April 30 Iraqi elections. The Kurdish parties participated in the elections independently from each other, and the results were announced on May 19. The KDP, led by Barzani, won 25 seats from the three Kurdistan districts, in addition to Ninevah, Kirkuk and Diyala. PUK won 21 seats from the above provinces and Saladin. The Change Movement won nine seats, the Islamic Union four seats and al-Jamaa al-Islamiyya three seats.
According to the election results, PUK has shown that it overcame its poor showing in the 2013 elections of Iraqi Kurdistan and has recovered the No. 2 spot from the Change Movement. This shift has changed the political calculations to form a provincial government, and the agreement now is to give PUK the deputy prime minister post. The latter post is expected to go to Talabani’s son Qubad Talabani as a way to prevent the expected political conflict and the prospects that the agreement of the Kurdish forces may unravel over the mechanics of negotiating with Baghdad. However, differences remain over the interior minister post, which the PUK is requesting.
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