A poll, publicized Jan. 28 on the Knesset Channel, predicts 18 mandates for a new party headed by Benjamin Netanyahu, should the prime minister decide to split the Likud Party to implement a diplomatic plan vis-à-vis the Palestinians. The question asked in the poll, and the numerous interpretations given to its results, reflect a fixated thought process based on the schism created by late Prime Minister Ariel Sharon in the Likud at the end of 2005 to implement the Disengagement Plan from the Gaza Strip and Northern Samaria.

When Israeli politicians attempt to anticipate the future, they share the tendency of generals to prepare for the previous war. Today’s Israeli politicians are not able to free themselves from the last major political-diplomatic event that shook them up: Sharon’s defection to establish the Kadima Party. Now, as Benjamin Netanyahu stands at a diplomatic crossroads and the possibility of adopting a compromise agreement with the Palestinians is floating around, the past Likud breakaway experience immediately comes to the fore in Israel’s collective memory, and becomes the only perceived path to realize such a process.

Ostensibly, there are many similarities between then and today: a prime minister of the Likud whose far-right dominant wing intends on embittering his life should he even dare to consider the option of evacuating settlements. The poll that predicts 18 mandates for Netanyahu reflects a situation in which his new party would receive votes from the political center instead of the right-wing electorate remaining in the Likud. This scenario greatly resembles the coalescing of public support for Kadima at the beginning of its existence.

But does Netanyahu have another option? Is he capable of remaining in the Likud and executing a diplomatic maneuver within the party, in spite of everything? A high-placed Likud minister disqualifies the option that the prime minister would engage in a Sharon-style political adventure to found a new movement. In his words, “Bibi [Netanyahu] can toy with this idea, but he is not capable of carrying out such an adventurous plan. I don’t know how far he intends to go on the diplomatic track but from my familiarity with him I reckon that he’ll stick with the Likud. Netanyahu hopes to be re-elected one more time to the premiership from the Likud. I don’t see him leaving the party.”