At the negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program in Geneva, progress was made. Although the first round ended without a deal, unusually optimistic forecasts are being heard about the second round, on Nov. 20. It seems that Iran and the United States, the main participants in the process, really want to change the atmosphere of their relationship, which has been hopelessly confrontational since the late 1970s.
The current stage differs from all previous efforts in that the participants are trying to get out of the rut that these discussions have always been in, and not just on the Iranian issue. Specifically, sanctions are never removed. Once imposed, they can only be increased, up to the use of force.
Moscow is following the events with great interest (basically, this is the model that Russia has always advocated), but also with caution. The view is expressed, for example, that Iran's return from isolation would be a loss for Russia, because the current “special” relationship is based largely on Tehran's being burdened by the sanctions and having nowhere else to turn but to Russia. This applies primarily to relations involving the construction of nuclear power plants and military and technical cooperation. But as soon as Iran has other opportunities, it will immediately reorient itself toward more influential Western countries. There is always the risk that the country that was eager to be “friendly” in times of trouble will turn away as soon as the grip of isolation loosens. This was seen to some extent in Libya under Gadhafi and in Serbia after Milosevic.
The second argument for keeping Iran closed off is to keep the oil and gas of a major competitor from reaching the market. And the price of oil is still higher due to major consumers refusing to take Iran's production. More important, Iran's abundant reserves of natural gas cannot get to the European market and thereby compete with Gazprom. If Iran were to return to the ranks of “respectable” countries, the long-suffering Nabucco project, which is basically dead, could come back to life. Any easing of the external pressure on Tehran would surely make the Iranian market much more competitive for Russia.
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