A few days ago, Lebanon commemorated the 38th anniversary of the outbreak of the civil war that began on April 13, 1975. Remarkably, the occasion was acknowledged in the absence of a government and, to an extent, a parliament. Some predict that Lebanon is headed toward a presidential election crisis in May 2014 unless a recent initiative by Saudi Arabia succeeds. Is there really such an initiative, however?

Since the resignation of Prime Minister Najib Mikati on March 22, there has been talk of a Saudi effort to reconcile rival Lebanese forces. The Saudis were reportedly among the international actors who encouraged or perhaps asked Mikati to step aside. Also, Saudi Arabia had a clear role in naming the person, Tammam Salam,  assigned to form a new government. Before the necessary constitutional steps were taken in this regard, the MP from Beirut traveled to Riyadh, where he met with a number of officials, most notably, Bandar Bin Sultan, the kingdom's intelligence chief. Following this meeting, the constitutional steps, as if mere formalities, were finalized, and Salam was pronounced prime minister-designate.

Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, a prominent warlord during the civil war, said explicitly that Bandar had asked him to name someone to replace Mikati and that he himself had convinced the Saudis to choose Salam. At this point, talk began of a new Saudi tutelage over Lebanon, and various interpretations were offered. Some said that the Saudis intended to replace the Syrian role, which receded during the early part of the civil war in Syria and today has ceased to exist.

Others theorized that the Saudis are “concerned” about Qatar's role in Syria and, by extension, in Lebanon. Qatari money is flowing to jihadist forces different from those supported by Saudi Arabia. This has led to cases of undisciplined fundamentalism, which the Saudis fear could transform into a beast and turn on them, as happened with the "Arab Afghans" and the rise of Osama bin Laden, “son of the Saudi regime,” and beginnings of al-Qaeda.