If Israel could go back to October 2011, it may not have proceeded with the prisoner exchange deal with Hamas and released more than 1,000 prisoners — including senior Hamas officials — in exchange for the liberation of the soldier Gilad Shalit. This is based on Israel's ongoing campaign of arrests in the West Bank launched by intelligence services and the army against former detainees. The Israelis claim that these released prisoners have returned to armed action and are threatening to abduct Israeli soldiers.

According to recent statements by Hamas leaders Osama Hamdan and Sami Abu Zuhri, historical precedent has motivated Hamas to again consider abducting Israeli soldiers. Israel submitted to Hamas' conditions in the most recent exchange and feels that it can repeat such a deal to secure the release of its remaining members behind bars.

This prompted the Palestinian Center for Prisoners Studies to warn of operations targeting released prisoners. This came after what the center deemed to be an incitement campaign led by Shin Bet. The Israeli security service has accused former detainees of directing and financing armed operations, in particular, attempts to abduct soldiers. It has also drawn links between their presence in Gaza and a rise in the number of operations targeting the Israeli army in the West Bank. At the time of writing, 20 of those released had been rearrested by the Israeli army.

The Palestinian security services have helped Israeli intelligence in tracing the steps former prison have taken to carry out armed operations. The Palestinian Authority (PA) knows that if they succeed in kidnapping soldiers or settlers, to be used as bargaining chips for the release of Palestinian prisoners, it would represent a blow to the PA’s political project.