Lebanese Elections Likely to Face Postponement
As the debate regarding the Orthodox Gathering law rages on, amid a complicated web of alliances between Lebanon’s sectarian contingents, elections are unlikely to take place according to schedule, writes Elie Hajj.
Regardless of the governing electoral law, the Lebanese elections need to happen to ensure the stable and continuous functioning of the constitutional bodies.
So far, however, nothing indicates that the Lebanese people will head to the ballot box — at least not this summer.
President Michel Suleiman and Prime Minister Najib Mikati had signed a decree inviting voters to participate in the elections in a remarkably quick way. This step intimidated the Hezbollah-led March 8 Coalition, which constitutes a majority in the government. Hezbollah refuses to revert to the applicable 1960 electoral law based on political and demographic balances and data that have completely changed.
Hezbollah and its allies are not the only ones rejecting the 1960 law. Most March 14 Christians, allied with the Sunni-based Future Movement, also share this stance. Oddly enough, the March 14 Christians agreed with their Christian opponents and gathered around General Michel Aoun and the Free Patriotic Movement. They felt that the Orthodox Gathering Law best represents the Christians in the parliament, as it stipulates for people of a certain sect to vote for their members of parliament from the same sect to achieve the effective balance that was set forth in the Taif Accord, despite the disparity in percentages and figures between the Christians (38% of the total number of residents) and the Muslims and Druze (62%).
