Set to begin on Sunday [Feb. 17] a trial at the Jerusalem Magistrate Court could herald the end of an era in Israel’s politics. Former Foreign Minister Avigdor Liberman will face an extended panel of three judges who will seal his political fate. If acquitted, Liberman will become the Israeli Dreyfus, having been persecuted for 15 years by the law-enforcement agencies until proven innocent. This will serve as a powerful lever, helping Liberman fulfill his aspiration and climb the last rung on his way to the top. If convicted of moral turpitude, Liberman will dissolve into the business world, prompting many in the local and the global political world to utter a great sigh of relief.

The former foreign minister exhibits great confidence. Analyzing, strategizing and conducting pretrial war games, his attorneys talk about no less than “total acquittal.”

To me, it seems that the situation is much more complex in reality. Generally speaking, Israeli courts have this odd characteristic: You know how you got in, but you don’t know how you’ll get out. The list of witnesses for the prosecution is extensive, consisting mainly of past and present senior officials from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Some of them, by mere words, could implicate their boss and turn this marginal legal affair into a chronic headache. For Liberman’s sake, I hope he is well aware of that possibility and is not a captive of his innocence. In recent weeks, his energy, undivided attention and schedule have all been geared toward the imminent trial. Although he has expressed his opinions on current affairs and taken political action in the efforts to form a coalition, those who are in the know say that this is of little import to him at the moment. His personal fate is hanging in the balance.

So what can be said with great certainty? That Liberman will not attend the swearing-in of Netanyahu’s third government sometime in the middle of March (barring some haywire surprise that will force Israel to go for re-election). The trial itself shouldn’t be too complicated. Notwithstanding, it is believed that it will take several months to conclude, following which the court will take its time to render a verdict.