It is twenty-five years now since the first intifada broke out. At the time, it took the top echelons of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and Shin Bet by surprise. None of the top brass in either organization had anticipated the possibility of a large-scale and violent popular uprising in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. In fact, they missed the early signs portending a flare-up. Alas, the parties concerned also failed to learn their lesson, and 13 years later, the IDF and Shin Bet were once again caught off guard when the second intifada, which was by far more violent, erupted in late September 2000.

Now, after another dozen years has passed, it seems that no one will be surprised when the third intifada breaks out. Senior members of the IDF and the Shin Bet are no longer wondering whether another popular uprising will erupt, but rather ask, “When will it happen?" According to their evaluations, if the policy of the Israeli government on the Palestinian issue does not change, and the political stalemate persists, a new round of violence is inevitable.

This is the tragic aspect of the current situation. Contrary to the past — when policy makers in Israel failed to realize where their policy on the territories was bound to lead and were thus in for a surprise — this time around Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is leading Israel, eyes wide open, toward a violent confrontation with the Palestinians. The conflict looming ahead can already be sensed; the foreboding signs are too obvious to be ignored. Anyone walking about in the West Bank these days would immediately notice that the area is seething and sizzling and that nothing more than a single spark is needed to ignite violence. But even if Netanyahu insists on closing his eyes to reality and ignoring what is happening on the ground, he cannot disregard the statements made by Palestinian leaders, including moderates and peace advocates among them, who openly and explicitly warn against the wave of violence liable to flare up and which they would not be able to control.

In recent weeks, the West Bank has experienced a significant increase in the number of disturbances and violent clashes between IDF soldiers and hundreds of Palestinian youths, who are equipped not only with stones but also with Molotov cocktails that they hurl at soldiers. At the same time, an ever-growing number of rallies and demonstrations are being organized by Hamas throughout the West Bank, with participants openly calling for “reviving the resistance” and kindling a third intifada.