Israel's next election: Who's leading in polls and what's at stake?

Israel enters election season this week after its governing coalition agreed to dissolve parliament, setting an Oct. 27 vote that will test Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's political survival while exposing deep divisions over military service exemptions for ultra-Orthodox Jews. It will be the first time in nearly four decades that the Knesset completes its full term before an election.

What happened: During deliberations Friday on legislation governing party financing, the Knesset Committee approved a proposal to dissolve the 25th Knesset on July 17 and hold new elections three months later, on the latest possible date permitted by law. The measure was approved by a majority vote and must still be formally ratified by the full Knesset, though the announced election date is already considered final.

Israel’s opposition has been calling for more than two years for the government to resign over its failure to prevent Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, massacre. It was only in June, following an internal coalition crisis, that the Knesset adopted a bill to dissolve itself and call elections after the government failed to pass legislation exempting ultra-Orthodox men from military service.

Holding elections on Oct. 27 means that the 25th Knesset will serve its full term, a rare occurrence in Israeli politics. Parliament is usually dissolved before completing its mandate. The last time general elections were held on schedule was in 1988, at the end of the national unity government between Likud and the Labor Party.

Legislative race: With less than one week remaining before the Knesset dissolves, the coalition is engaged in a legislative sprint. Likud and the ultra-Orthodox coalition parties are pushing to pass several bills aimed at appealing to their electoral bases.

The Knesset on Monday approved the controversial Basic Law on Torah Study, which enshrines Torah study as a foundational state value and is expected to bolster efforts by ultra-Orthodox parties to preserve military service exemptions for yeshiva students. Lawmakers are also expected to pass legislation preventing the detention of yeshiva students evading military service; a law restoring the Chief Rabbinate's monopoly over kosher certification; and legislation splitting the role of the attorney general, who also serves as the government's legal adviser. The Knesset must also approve a new election law formally setting the election date for Oct. 27. The opposition is not expected to object.

Election agenda: Much like the past two elections, the current campaign is expected to focus on whether Netanyahu should continue leading the country. The opposition has called on him to resign and establish a national commission of inquiry into the security and strategic failures that led to the Hamas attack — calls rejected by Netanyahu. The prime minister is also under criticism for remaining in office while standing trial in a six-year-old corruption case involving charges of bribery, fraud and breach of trust.

The ongoing US-Iran military conflict is also expected to become a major campaign issue. Israeli public opinion remains critical of the April ceasefire agreement between Washington and Tehran. Polls show that most Israelis believe another war with Iran is inevitable. Netanyahu has also been criticized by the opposition for allegedly caving in to President Donald Trump over the ceasefire agreements with Iran and Lebanon.

Another major campaign issue is the exemption of ultra-Orthodox men from military service. The coalition failed to agree on legislation despite pressure from the ultra-Orthodox parties, but the Basic Law on Torah Study is widely viewed as a significant step in that direction. Gadi Eisenkot’s growing popularity is largely attributed to his campaign against the exemption law and against government benefits for yeshiva students, including stipends, while they remain exempt from military service.

Who is leading? Public opinion polls published last week by Channel 13 and Israel’s public broadcaster Kan placed the Yashar party, headed by former military chief of staff and former Knesset member Eisenkot, in first place. Both Channel 13’s Thursday poll and Kan’s Sunday poll gave Yashar 24 Knesset seats, compared with 23 for Netanyahu’s Likud. The Together party, headed by former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, was third with 15 seats.

Like most surveys conducted over the past year, both polls predict that Netanyahu will be unable to assemble a majority coalition. According to Channel 13, the opposition bloc is projected to win 69 seats, while the coalition would secure 51. Kan projected 68 seats for the opposition and 52 for the coalition. Still, Eisenkot and Bennett have both ruled out including Arab parties in their coalition, which could leave them short of the 61-seat majority required to form a government. Polls have consistently given the Arab parties between 10 and 11 seats.

Netanyahu, 76, the longest-serving prime minister in Israel’s history, has confirmed that he will run for reelection. He also said on June 28 that he would seek to establish what he called a "broad national government" that would include some opposition parties. Still, polls conducted since the Oct. 7 massacre by Hamas have shown a significant decline in Netanyahu’s popularity, accompanied by repeated calls for him to take personal responsibility for the government’s failures.

Until last month, Bennett was perceived as Netanyahu’s main opponent, but that has changed. Eisenkot now emerges as Netanyahu’s strongest rival, thanks to his military credentials and his image as a clean politician seeking to save the country rather than advance his own career. Eisenkot’s son was killed in December 2023 while serving as a soldier in Gaza. Two of his nephews were also killed that year while serving in the military.

Sunday’s Kan poll also examined suitability for the premiership. In a head-to-head matchup with Bennett, Netanyahu received 38% support, compared with 34% for Bennett. Against Eisenkot, Netanyahu trailed, receiving 37% support compared with Eisenkot’s 41%.

What’s next: Israel now enters full election mode. Parties must finalize their Knesset lists, and new political parties are expected to emerge ahead of the vote.

Former Likud Minister Gilad Erdan is currently negotiating with former Knesset speaker Yuli Edelstein and former Yamina leader Ayelet Shaked over the establishment of a new right-wing party.

The four Arab parties — Hadash, Ta’al, Balad and Ra’am — must also decide whether to run on a joint list or separately. Ra’am leader Mansour Abbas said last month that his party would run independently as he seeks to join the next government, a strategy rejected by the other Arab parties.