YEREVAN — Armenia is due to hold nationwide parliamentary elections on Sunday that are being billed as a historic referendum on the country’s direction. Will it continue its westward orientation under current Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and his Civil Contract Party? Or will it slide back into Russia’s orbit under its chief rival, Strong Armenia, led by billionaire businessman Samvel Karapetyan?

A glowing endorsement from President Donald Trump on Truth Social, coupled with strong and vocal support from EU leaders, has positioned Pashinyan as firmly pro-Western. Meanwhile, mounting pressure from Russia — including the banning of a wide array of Armenian goods ahead of the elections — has reinforced Pashinyan’s claims that his opponents are in the Kremlin’s pocket. Pashinyan argues that unless he wins a third term, the country could be plunged back into war with Azerbaijan. Normalization with Turkey, he warns, would also return to the deep freeze. Opinion polls suggest that Pashinyan is likely to win by a considerable margin.

But the picture is not entirely black and white. Rights groups say Pashinyan is eroding the rule of law. Karapetyan’s continued detention under house arrest on allegations that he sought to overthrow the government in league with the Armenian Apostolic Church has cast a pall over the campaign. Senior clergy who criticized Pashinyan’s negotiations with Azerbaijan have also been arrested and charged on similar grounds.

Nor are all of Pashinyan’s opponents Kremlin assets, as his party’s supporters claim. One figure in particular stands out: Arman Tatoyan, founder of the newly launched Wings of Unity Party, who served as Armenia’s human rights ombudsman from 2016 to 2022. Six of those years were under Armenia’s former prime minister, Serzh Sarkisyan, who is part of a pro-Russian alliance of politicians challenging Pashinyan. Tatoyan has also sided with the Armenian Church in its disputes with the prime minister and launched his election campaign near a 13th-century church close to the Iranian border.