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Analysis

Iran celebrates 'victory' over Israel, but what comes next for regime?

Though claiming triumph over Israel, Iran is emerging from a war that has left its nuclear program damaged, its air defenses exposed and its leadership facing deep uncertainties about the future of its decades-long hostilities against Israel.

An Iranian man holds a portrait of supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as people celebrate a ceasefire between Iran and Israel at Enghlab Square in the capital Tehran on June 24, 2025.
An Iranian man holds a portrait of supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as people celebrate a ceasefire between Iran and Israel at Enghlab Square in the capital, Tehran, on June 24, 2025. — ATTA KENARE/AFP via Getty Images

TEHRAN — Iranian officials and state media were quick to declare victory on Monday after a ceasefire announced by President Donald Trump ended a deadly 12-day conflict that began with Israeli targeted assassinations in Tehran on June 13.

The official Iranian narrative framed the ceasefire as an outcome of the "defeat imposed" on Israel following Iran's retaliatory attacks, the last of which reportedly killed at least four Israeli citizens in the southern city of Beersheba. State media also claimed that Iran's missile strike on a US air base in Qatar, just hours before the ceasefire, forced Trump to "beg" for an end.

Cautious optimism about strategic pause

In a sign of Iran's ambivalence toward the ceasefire, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi posted on X that there had been no formal agreement. He noted, however, that Iran would halt further retaliation if Israel stopped its own strikes. As Araghchi wrote the post, Israel was unleashing a last-minute relentless wave of strikes on the capital, Tehran, in what residents described as the most intense bombardment in the entire conflict. 

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