BEIRUT — After six eerily calm days, Hezbollah has made its first countermove against Israel since a ceasefire agreement was signed by both parties on Nov. 27. The Lebanese militia claimed it shelled an enemy military position in the disputed Kfarchouba hills against Israel after it violated the truce a total of 74 times. 

Israel’s attacks had been reported by both France and the United States, who were concerned they would risk a collapse of the ceasefire. However, the Iran-backed organization took the matter into its own hands and carried out what it called a “defensive warning strike.”

“We just gave them a fair rap on the knuckles,” said Mahmoud, a young Lebanese man from Khiam, a village near the border with Israel. “For the past days, they have been entering their tanks into our towns, razing our olive groves with caterpillar treads, blocking our roads with their bulldozers and flying their drones over Beirut. There is a ceasefire in force — we cannot be fooled around like this.”

However, retaliating against Israel’s violations could prove detrimental to Hezbollah. The past two months have been challenging for the armed group. Both the unsustainable war and the growing number of casualties — a number that hasn't been seen in the country for decades — threatened the group's popular support and reinforced tensions with other Lebanese political factions. Can Hezbollah, being at an all-time low, afford to respond to Israel's infringements?

“Hezbollah needs to answer to their constituents, who are eager to go back home and whose hopes about return have now been raised. A resurrection of full-on fighting will be politically damaging,” says Lina Khatib, associate fellow at Chatham House and director of the SOAS Middle East Institute in London. Israel promised a "strong response" to the Kfarchouba hills attack, which caused no casualties. It was no sooner said than done: In the following hours, the Israeli Defense Forces carried out a series of strikes across Lebanon.