The successful conclusion of the ceasefire deal with Lebanon could push Israel to jump-start talks with Hamas for an agreement that would see the liberation of hostages and an end of hostilities in Gaza. However, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu might opt to preserve his government by avoiding bringing the war to an end.
The deal, announced Tuesday evening first by Netanyahu and then by US President Joe Biden, sees a preliminary 60-day cease-fire period in which Hezbollah militants retreat to the north of the Litani River, Israeli troops withdraw and Lebanese soldiers take control of the area. A US-led committee will control the implementation of the agreement and a letter from the United States to Israel will recognize Israel's right to self-defense. If Hezbollah militants return to the south of Lebanon and if the control mechanism and UNIFIL fail to stop Hezbollah from regrouping, Israel will have the right to take action.
Carmit Valensi is a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies, an Israeli research organization. "Clearly, the deal created strong momentum, and we might even see a spillover effect," she told Al-Monitor.
"Once we succeed in resolving one conflict, we generate political and diplomatic energies that could be used for continuing towards the next one," she said, adding, "The heavy burden on the Israeli military, including the massive use of reserve soldiers, the economic repercussions of the war, Israel losing its international legitimacy to operate militarily, all these factors are extremely present not only in the war in Lebanon but also in the Gaza war. The legitimacy issue even more so."
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