It is very possible that Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid might enter the Prime Minister’s Office in just a few weeks. According to the rotation agreement between him and Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, if one of the right-wing parties causes the coalition to fall apart before the official transfer of power in August 2023, Lapid immediately becomes prime minister.

The demise of the coalition has seemed increasingly likely over the last week. The government cannot pass legislation, it is losing votes in the Knesset, and its members are violating coalition discipline. To make matters worse, members of Bennett’s own Yamina party are reportedly conducting covert and even direct negotiations with the Likud about joining them at some point.

If just one of these renegade Knesset members quits the coalition, the government is unlikely to survive a no-confidence vote. If this happens, Lapid would take over from Bennett and serve as prime minister during the election campaign.

In that case, Lapid will go head-to-head against former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from the position of prime minister. Lapid will lead the center-left bloc, while Netanyahu will lead the rightwing-ultra-Orthodox bloc, with each trying to win the 61 seats needed to form a coalition.