Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Feb. 3 meeting with his counterpart Volodymr Zelenskyy in Ukraine yielded a string of accords aimed at deepening economic and military ties between Ankara and Kyiv and thereby significantly raised the stakes for both sides should Russia attack the former Soviet state.

Russian land and naval forces remain massed around Ukraine as Western leaders scramble to find a diplomatic solution to defuse the crisis. Erdogan has offered to mediate between Russia and Ukraine and for good reason.

War would bring Turkey under intense pressure from its Western allies to join putative sanctions against Russia, a critical trading partner and supplier of natural gas. Turkey will do its best to remain neutral, as signaled anew by Erdogan in comments to reporters en route home from Kyiv. He accused Western governments of making the Ukraine-Russia crisis “worse” and rued the absence of former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, long accused of appeasing the Kremlin. He said Europe was suffering “serious issues at the leadership level” after her departure. US President Joe Biden had failed to “demonstrate a positive approach,” he added.

His comments echoed Moscow’s accusations that the United States and NATO are escalating tensions including through their deployment of additional troops to eastern Europe and continued arms deliveries to Ukraine. Many believe Erdogan’s comments are meant in part to assuage Moscow over Turkey’s sale of combat drones and other military equipment. During Erdogan’s visit the Black Sea allies agreed to jointly produce Bayraktar TB2 combat drones in Ukraine and build a maintenance and training center for operators alongside the planned facility.