Turkey’s request from the United States for 40 F-16 fighter jets and 80 modernization kits for its existing aircraft caught many by surprise last week, coming amid a lingering crisis between the two NATO allies over Ankara’s purchase of Russian S-400 air defense systems and its apparent intention to advance military cooperation with Russia. 

News of the requested purchase, estimated at some $7 billion, broke days after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, in Sochi on Sept 29. Afterward, Erdogan raised the prospect of buying a second batch of S-400s, even as the fate of Turkey’s existing four batteries remains in limbo, as well as further cooperation with Russia in aerospace and submarine and ship projects. 

The request for new F-16s is the most rational decision Ankara could make in the current circumstances. The shortcomings of the Turkish air force will only grow down the road, given Turkey’s expulsion from the F-35 joint strike fighter program over its purchase of the S-400s, delays in the development of its first home-built warplane, and the aging of its existing F-16s. Security analysts point out that Turkey’s aerial warfare capacity faces a major techno-generational challenge in the next decade or two. Neither Turkey’s TF-X indigenous jet project nor its locally made armed drones, which have attracted much international attention recently, are likely to close that techno-generational gap by the 2030s. 

Thus, the purchase of new F-16s, coupled with a comprehensive upgrade of existing ones, would be a good interim solution. Also, as a long-standing user and license-producer of the F-16s, Turkey would have ample advantages in terms of infrastructure, maintenance and pilots.