Putin gets some payback with 'alternative project' for Libya
Why Putin backs Hifter; Barzani’s Sinjar dilemma; Israel’s missing Gaza policy; GCC moves to the margins on Syria.
Russia seizes opportunity in Libya
Vasily Kuznetsov explains the evolution of Russia’s approach to the Middle East in terms of both its “blunt pragmatism” and, since 2011, defining itself “as an alternative project rather than part of the West … premised on Russian historical experience.”
Kuznetsov writes that this alternative project has extended to support for Gen. Khalifa Hifter in Libya. In backing Hifter, Moscow is seeking to shift its relations with Cairo from “mutual affinity into a solid alliance.” Despite Hifter’s limitations, other armed groups in Libya are “unreliable and weak.” Nonetheless, Kuznetsov notes, “This does not imply that Russia intends to ignore other Libyan actors. Amid the lack of developed institutions and overmilitarized society, the establishment of a resilient system entails a necessary broad consensus. Given the Syrian experience and Moscow’s general approaches, one can assume that as a mediator in Libya, the Kremlin will follow a regional track of the conflict resolution involving Egypt, Tunisia and Algeria as the key players.”
There may also be a bit of payback in Putin’s meddling in Libya. US relations with Egypt have been shaken a bit since the protests that overthrew former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak in 2011, and Russia’s abstention on UN Security Council Resolution 1973, which facilitated the US-led bombing campaign that helped depose former Libyan dictator Moammar Gadhafi, still stings. Kuznetsov suggests that “it is the West’s ideologically driven policies and its reluctance to recognize the imperfect world that cause Moscow’s considerable irritation.”
