The arm wrestling in Libya’s Government of National Accord (GNA), which boiled over with Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj’s suspension of the powerful Interior Minister Fathi Bashagha, has brought into question Turkey’s role in the power struggle among its allies in Libya. Some believe the row is an unwelcome development for Turkey, while others see it as a sign that Ankara has opted to back Bashagha, its No. 1 man in Libya, against Sarraj.

The circumstances surrounding Bashagha’s suspension and other reshuffles last week gave rise to speculation that Sarraj pulled off a preemptive “coup” against a coup plot by Bashagha, who was in Ankara at the time of his removal. Yet Libyan sources believe that Turkey is unlikely to undermine a government with which it signed critical accords on maritime demarcation and military cooperation in November 2019.

The coup speculation stemmed from a series of developments that preceded the showdown in Tripoli. 

On Aug. 21, Sarraj and Aguila Saleh, head of the House of Representatives — the political arm of the eastern forces fighting Tripoli — issued simultaneous cease-fire appeals. Some terms of the cease-fire initiative, shaped through German and US mediation, were not to Ankara’s liking. Above all, Ankara wanted that Khalifa Hifter’s eastern forces cede the control of the strategically significant Sirte and al-Jufra to the Tripoli government, but Sarraj and Saleh proposed a joint force to police the region. Also, they called for the pullout of all foreign forces and the disbanding of militia — a point that is of direct concern to Ankara, which has brought in thousands of fighters from Syria and is seeking permanent bases in Libya.