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Idlib and the collapse of Erdogan’s foreign policy

Gambling on Russia to secure results in Syria turns out to be Ankara’s biggest miscalculation

ANKARA, TURKEY - FEBRUARY 26: President of Turkey and leader of Justice and Development (AK) Party, Recep Tayyip Erdogan greets party members as he attends his party's group meeting at Grand National Assembly of Turkey in Ankara, Turkey on February 26, 2020. (Photo by Ali Balikci/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)
President of Turkey and leader of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) Recep Tayyip Erdogan greets party members as he attends the AKP's group meeting at the Turkish parliament in Ankara, Feb. 26, 2020. — Ali Balikci/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

The implications of the Turkish-Russian fallout over Idlib go beyond Syria and represent a collapse of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Islamist-driven approach to foreign policy.

Turkey is an isolated country today that has confrontational ties with the United States and Russia, as well as the Arab world and Europe. It is trying to ensure its vital security interests against this difficult backdrop.

But the few friends Ankara has left, such as Qatar, Pakistan or Azerbaijan, provide Turkey with no strategic value that could strengthen its hand against its adversaries.

The only option Erdogan has is to try and play the United States and Russia against each other, as he has been doing for some time now, but this approach seems to also have run its course.

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