Although some observers believe that Turkey’s importance to the United States and other Western governments will increase after the assassination of Iranian military leader Qasem Soleimani, they shouldn’t be too quick to arrive at such conclusions in the aftermath of an event of such magnitude as to shake not only the Middle East but global politics as well.
Four days after the killing of Soleimani, Robyn Dixon wrote the following in a Jan. 6 Washington Post op-ed: “Some of the loudest critics of President Trump's order to kill a senior Iranian commander — other than Iranians — are Russian officials, who have denounced it as an illegal assassination and a politically motivated election-year decision. But it is Russia that may end up benefiting from the fallout. If the United States withdraws from Iraq as backlash over the killing widens, Russia could strengthen its foothold in the country — much as it did in Syria after Trump ordered a troop pullout there last fall, a step that was later partly reversed.”
Dixon, the Post's Moscow bureau chief, added, “Speaking to French President Emmanuel Macron Friday, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that Friday’s targeted killing of Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani would seriously destabilize the region. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov cast it as illegal and counterproductive to his counterparts in China, Turkey and Iran, as well as to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.”
The argument that Russia might emerge as a beneficiary of Soleimani’s assassination at the order of President Donald Trump also reflects the view among circles close to Turkey’s strongman, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Yusuf Erim, a political analyst for the state-owned TRT World, cited three main reasons why Turkey would emerge “the big winner” in the US-Iranian escalation: the American bases in Turkey would gain in strategic value; Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria would lose strength after Soleimani's death; and if US forces are expelled from Iraq, the Kurdistan Regional Government would look to Turkey as a security provider, paving the way for Ankara to ramp up counterterrorism operations against Kurdish armed groups in northern Iraq that Turkey views as a threat to its national security.
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