Tunisia’s food crisis will worsen without an IMF deal

Al-Monitor Pro Members

Francisco Serrano

Journalist and analyst specialized in North Africa

Jan. 25, 2023

In mid-January, nearly 100 trucks carrying tons of sugar, semolina, rice and cooking oil entered Tunisia through its southeastern land border. The convoy carried food donated by Libya’s Tripoli-based National Unity Government. Tunisia has faced structural food insecurity for several years now, but the problem is being compounded by a fragile financial situation, increased food prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and political uncertainty. Because of the perilous social and economic situation, solving current food shortages will be key to stabilize the country. 

Scenario 1: High food prices and scarcity persists over most of 2023, before starting to subside towards the fall.  

A deal with the IMF in the second half of the year helps to shore up food availability, through the government’s more robust financial situation. Although global commodity prices remain relatively high over 2023 — especially for cereals — a slow improvement in domestic conditions allows for high prices and scarcity to gradually recede. International support, especially additional donations from neighboring countries, partly resolve scarcity of some food staples. However, availability of key staples such as cooking oil, sugar and flour remain volatile throughout most of the year, before beginning to subside towards the end of 2023. The risk of social instability will remain significantly high over most of the year. Agro-industrial export capacity, especially for products that require imported goods for their manufacturing inputs, remains pressured by higher costs and scarcity. But conditions improve towards the second half of the year. Food retail and distribution businesses face high competition in the form of food supplies imported informally from neighboring countries.  

Scenario 2: Access to critical food products becomes even harder as the economic crisis intensifies    

Due to rising political and social instability — as well as a lack of agreement between the government and the UGTT — a deal with IMF is not finalized in 2023. The state’s inability to pay for imports and support prices for food staples remains impaired. Any worsening of the situation would likely lead neighboring Libya and Algeria to increase donations of food staples. Partner Gulf countries would supply some donations, too, but these will still have a limited impact on the larger problem of pricing and availability. Social and labor disruptions will remain predominant over 2023. Political uncertainty increases, as Saied’s legitimacy is further damaged by his inability to secure external financing and stabilize the country’s economy. Besides the overall economic instability that will impact most businesses, agro-industry production and food retailers will suffer from high prices and severe shortages. Lack of sufficient food products would also weaken the tourism sector’s ability to mount a solid rebound over the spring and summer high season.  

This scenario remains the least likely at the moment, given that a failure to secure any IMF deal over the coming months would leave Tunisia in a dire financial situation. This is something that Tunisia’s partners will want to avoid, increasing the chance of an IMF bailout over the coming months. 

Francisco Serrano is a writer and analyst who focuses mainly on North Africa. He has been published in several outlets, including Foreign Policy, World Politics Review and the Middle East Institute. His second book, "As Ruínas da Década," about the past decade in the Middle East, was published in March 2022.

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