Red Sea, Iran energy threats amplify 2025 global economic risks as trade wars, Trump loom
Al-Monitor subscribers
Samuel Wendel
Senior Market Research Analyst, Al-Monitor
Oct. 10, 2024
After Iran’s missile attack against Israel on Oct. 1, the regional struggle between arch foes quickly threatened to ensnare Gulf energy flows amid potential for retaliatory strikes and all-out war. That major risk comes as ongoing attacks by Yemen’s Houthis could also be poised to become more lethal and fuel more chaos: On Sept. 24, Reuters reported that Iran had brokered ongoing talks with Russia to transfer one of the world’s most advanced anti-ship missiles to the rebels. That could allow the increasingly emboldened Houthis to further threaten commercial shipping and Western warships. This comes as US-led efforts to contain the group are foundering after 11 straight months of disruptions in the Red Sea, which typically handles about 12% of global trade. Although most global economic fallout remains contained, industry players are bracing for Red Sea turbulence to continue into Q4 2024 — if not longer. Alongside potential Mideast energy disruptions, this is all raising the risk that this festering regional crisis could eventually converge with other global threats to fuel new economic headwinds, including new trade wars sparked by a second Trump presidency.
