Memo

Libya’s oil production unlikely to reach 2 million barrels per day ever again

To:

Al-Monitor Pro Members

From:

Gerald Kepes

President, Competitive Energy Strategies, LLC

Date:

Feb. 8, 2023

Bottom Line:

When reference is made to Libya’s upstream oil sector, “abundance,” “rich” and “leading” are the words often used. While true enough when referring to crude oil resources, this is not the same as crude oil production capacity. Libya’s current capacity to produce crude oil is about 1.2 million barrels per day (b/d). Farhat Bengdara, the head of Libya’s National Oil Company (NOC) toward the end of 2022 stated a desire to increase output to over 2 million b/d over the medium term. Wishing will not make it so.

Achievable success for Libya is more likely to look like 1.5 to 1.6 million b/d within five years and sustaining that for five years. But this is not a foregone conclusion.

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