Why Ethiopia and Sudan seek to avoid direct conflict despite tension
With the Sudanese army and Ethiopian federal forces bogged down in their own internal wars, analysts believe that both sides are trying to avoid a direct military confrontation.
A series of drone strikes on Sudanese power stations has triggered a diplomatic standoff between Khartoum and Addis Ababa, raising fears of a direct military confrontation. But analysts say both governments have strong reasons to avoid opening another front, even as they increasingly back each other’s adversaries.
On Nov. 4, Ethiopia’s federal government closed Sudan’s consulate in the border town of Assosa. A day later, the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF), the national army, retaliated by closing the Ethiopian consulate in its border city of Gedaref.
The tit-for-tat move came after a barrage of drones struck critical power stations under the SAF’s control. The SAF believes that its foe, the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), fired at it from Ethiopian soil.
The mounting tensions raise fears that the SAF and Ethiopia are inching closer to war despite struggling to survive their own internal conflicts.
