Israeli ultra-Orthodox party thuds from kingmakers to election losers

For years the ultra-Orthodox party Shas figured in most of Israel's governments, whether led from the right or the left, hoping to use their consistent number of seats to advance the community's interests.

But in last week's election, the party's clout collapsed as it lost nearly half of its seats, stung by disenchantment over Shas's alliance with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Shas first entered parliament in 1984 after being established to defend the interests of Sephardic Jews, who came to Israel from other Middle Eastern countries or North Africa. They have historically felt at an economic and cultural disadvantage to Ashkenazi Jews, who come mostly from Europe.

Run with military discipline by Moroccan-born Aryeh Deri, Shas has joined most coalitions but only after extracting its price, both in terms of ministerial berths and policy promises.

Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving prime minister who has ruled on and off for nearly 20 years, has learned to rely on the votes from Shas, even though he personally is both Ashkenazi and secular.

Unlike its Ashkenazi counterpart United Torah Judaism, which almost exclusively represents ultra-Orthodox Jews, who follow strict religious codes, Shas has appealed to a wider body of Sephardic Jews by positioning itself as a champion of the community at large.

But in the October 27 election, that broader electorate deserted Shas which in the new parliament will have only six seats, down from 11.

Gilad Malach, a research fellow at the Israel Democracy Institute who studies the ultra-Orthodox, said that Shas's support fell most markedly in working-class Sephardic areas far from the city centres.

"It's a crisis of confidence," he said.

Support from the broader working-class Sephardic community for Shas dropped by 37 percent, and it also fell by 22 percent within ultra-Orthodox areas, Malach's analysis found.

Ultra-Orthodox Jews make up about 14 percent of Israel's population, which is sharply divided between the religious and secular.

The ultra-Orthodox have many more children than secular Israelis, leading to expectations the religious will take on a significantly higher share of the population in the decades to come.

 

- Resentment -

 

Neither bloc gained enough seats for a majority in the election. The opposition is headed by Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief, the son of Moroccan immigrants who would be the first Sephardic prime minister.

Experts see a double-edged reason for the drop in support for Shas. 

The party has failed to secure a law that exempts the ultra-Orthodox Jews from Israel's mandatory military service.

Netanyahu, hoping to preserve allies, has allowed the exemption but stopped short of trying to enshrine it into law, in the face of wide resentment by other Israelis at a time that reservists are being called up multiple times as the prime minister wages war on Gaza, Lebanon and Iran.

Working-class Sephardic Jews who are not ultra-Orthodox have been particularly affected by the wars, with repeated tours of duty and disruption to their daily lives.

Such one-time Shas supporters felt abandoned by the party, which "was seen as essentially focused on preventing conscription and securing funding" for the ultra-Orthodox, Malach said.

Shas left the government in mid-2025 over the failure of a law on military service exemptions, although the party was back in Netanyahu's bloc for the election.

With Netanyahu and the opposition trying to form coalitions, Shas could again put its seats up for grabs. But it now has diminished power and Eisenkot, while eager for allies, has been outspoken in wanting fewer exemptions to military service.

Former Shas lawmaker Yossi Taieb, who himself served in the military, told AFP that the rabbis who run the party are now ready to agree to a greater number of ultra-Orthodox in the armed forces so long as an exemption still applies for yeshiva students, who study the Torah.

Eisenkot has been open to creating some sort of non-military service option for Israelis who do not serve in the armed forces, although some others in the opposition have vowed zero exemptions.

Malach said the chances of a Shas alliance with Eisenkot remain minimal and, for the moment, the party remains with Netanyahu's bloc.

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