Analysis-A new 'Yalta'? Trump and Putin push for a meeting that Xi is wary of hosting

By Trevor Hunnicutt, Mei Mei Chu and Andrew Osborn

WASHINGTON/BEIJING/MOSCOW, Nov 14 (Reuters) - The world's three most powerful leaders could sit down together next week to discuss global flashpoints, from wars in Ukraine and Iran to nuclear weapons and artificial intelligence.

The prospects for any grand bargain emerging from the rare encounter, however, are slim.

Down-to-the-wire negotiations over a meeting between US President Donald Trump, Chinese President XiJinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin have not yet yielded an agenda or format fortalks, according to two people familiar with the planning. But a meeting is expected in Shenzhen, where the leaders will attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, the people said.

The three men come with very different goals.

Putin sees a chance to secure an agreement to end the war in Ukraine on his terms. Trump — battered by his Republican Party's recent electoral losses — sees a moment for the history books, with possible movement toward a three-way agreement on nuclear arms control.

For Xi, however, it is an unpredictable gathering full of risks.

The Republican president's improvisational style clashes with Xi's scripted approach to high-profile events. And Trump's hope for arms control rubs against the reality that China — which has far fewer nuclear weapons than the US or Russia — considers itself a nuclear underdog.

"This is something the Chinese hate," said Edgard Kagan, a former senior Biden White House official for East Asia now with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a think tank. "I think it’s fair to say the Chinese do not want arms control discussions with the United States. And they certainly don’t want to do it with the United States and Russia, because it suggests that they accept the framing that they are now a major nuclear power that should be subject to similar restrictions."

For smaller governmentsnot at the table, including Ukraine and Taiwan, the idea of the big powers possibly cutting a private deal without them is a cause of deep unease.

The meeting would be Trump’s latest in a series of diplomatic spectacles over his nearly six years as US president, including his prior meetings with Putin and North Korean ​leader Kim Jong Un. None of those meetings produced a breakthrough.

A senior Trump administration official said "we do not expect to get to any kind of agreement" on nuclear issuesbut added "it's time for China to sort of step up" and talk about the topic.

"China is in communication with relevant parties regarding a meeting between the three heads of state," said a spokesperson for Beijing's embassy in Washington on Friday. "We have nothing to share at the moment."

Russia's embassy in Washington did not respond to a request for comment.

SOME NATIONS FEAR A NEW 'YALTA' CONFERENCE

The proposed meeting has drawn comparisons, particularly in Russia, with the 1945 Yalta Conference between the US, Britain and the Soviet Union that formalized spheres of influence, set the stage for the post-World War Two order and became shorthand for great-power deals imposed on smaller countries.

For Russian nationalists, the prospect of an updated version of Yalta has generated excitement, potentially opening the door to an agreement to end thefour-year-old Ukraine conflict in a manner that would favor Moscow.

Just holding the meeting elevates Russia to the status of a superpower alongside China and the US, they say.

“It shows who is important in the world: We are, China and the West," Russian nationalist ideologue Alexander Dugin told Radio Sputnik this week. "It’s deeply symbolic — it’s a confirmation of a multi-polar world that the West denies.”

But the possible meeting has generated anxiety from Kyiv to Tokyo, according to people briefed on those governments' reactions.

"We really don't want this to turn into 'Yalta 2, 3, 4,' with a redistribution of influence," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said last month.

The optics are awkward for China, which was not invited in 1945 and tries to present itself as an advocate for smaller countries.

A RELUCTANT HOST

Trump's suggestion of nuclear talks is a nonstarter for Beijing, said Chinese academics interviewed by Reuters. Russia and the United States each possess more than 5,000 nuclear warheads, while China has around 500, although Beijing is rapidly expanding its arsenal.

Still, next week Xi will play host. Beijing and Moscow have grown closer in recent years, trading oil and gas and military know-how. But they have taken different approaches to the potential trilateral meeting.

While Moscow sought a conversation on the war in Ukraine, Beijing has resisted putting that topic on the agenda, according to one of the people briefed on the meeting and a European diplomat, both speaking on the condition of anonymity. A US official said on Friday that Trump was not likely to raise the war in Ukraine and that three-way talks were not the proper forum to do so.

"Suggestions are being exchanged regarding a possible agenda," Dmitry Peskov, Putin's spokesman, told reporters on Monday. "In any case, the meeting will certainly be interesting. And, of course, it will capture the attention of people all over the world."

That is also Trump's hope.

Facing a Democratic-controlled Congress next year, he may be seeking wins abroad. An agreement on arms or help ending thewar with Iran could burnish his legacy.

"The president will undoubtedly be seeking to use this trip to reassert leadership, authority, demonstrate his statesmanship capabilities, and essentially show off on the international stage," said Kurt Tong, a former senior State Department official dealing with East Asia, now a managing partner at the Asia Group consultancy.

(Reporting by Trevor Hunnicutt in Washington, Mei Mei Chu in Beijing and Andrew Osborn in Moscow; Additional reporting by David Brunnstrom, Andrea Shalal and Joe Cash; Editing by Don Durfee and Sanjeev Miglani)