As US ties fray, Canada turns to Turkey for defense, nuclear cooperation

ANKARA — Frictions between Washington and Ottawa are opening a strategic window for Turkey, which is pushing to deepen defense-tech, nuclear and investment ties with Canada under a newly established strategic partnership.

While Canadian prime ministers have previously visited Turkey for international gatherings, Prime Minister Mark Carney on Oct. 22 became the first to pay a bilateral visit. He was accompanied by a large delegation, including Energy Minister Tim Hodgson and Foreign Minister Anita Anand. The visit yielded a series of agreements and commitments aimed at deepening bilateral ties, with a particular focus on defense, energy and trade cooperation.

Following the talks in Ankara, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Carney announced a strategic partnership and a three-year plan to increase bilateral trade, mutual investments and cooperation in areas including defense, energy and mining, though no further details were provided. 

Officials from the two countries also signed three memoranda of understanding during the visit on defense industry cooperation, aviation and energy, potentially paving the way for joint projects and access to new export markets. The two sides also agreed to hold the first round of free trade agreement talks in Ankara in November. 

Speaking during the joint press conference, Erdogan said the two countries aim to increase bilateral trade from approximately $3 billion to $5 billion in the next five years and eventually to $10 billion.

Why now?

The Turkey-Canada rapprochement comes as Turkey seeks to diversify its economic and strategic partnerships in defense, energy and trade and reduce reliance on traditional Western partners, including the United States and the European Union. 

Ankara's relations with its Western partners have faced recurring strains, particularly over defense procurement and trade. The United States blocked Turkey’s acquisition of F-35 fighter jets in 2019 over Ankara's 2017 purchase of Russian S-400 air defense systems. Meanwhile, Turkey's efforts to modernize its customs union with the European Union have remained stalled for years amid political disagreements. 

Ankara has long sought to diversify its economic and strategic partnerships. Yet the renewed momentum in Turkey-Canada ties is driven largely by Ottawa, as US President Donald Trump’s tariffs and threats to Canadian sovereignty have pushed Canada to seek alternative economic and security partners.

According to Thomas Juneau, a professor of international relations at the University of Ottawa, fraying ties with the US pushed the Canadian government to seek new partners, particularly in defense. 

Canada’s “security and intelligence and defense partnership is very much focused on and reliant on the US,” Juneau told Al-Monitor, adding, “What until now was highly beneficial became a critical vulnerability," he said. 

Joint defense production

Among Ankara's top expectations for the rapprochement with Ottawa is increasing defense industry cooperation, according to a Turkish national security official who spoke to Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity.

Defense trade has previously been a source of friction in bilateral ties. Canada first restricted military exports to Turkey in 2019 over Ankara’s offensive against Syrian Kurdish groups. It lifted the restrictions in January 2024 after Turkey ratified Sweden’s NATO membership.

Thursday’s visit signaled a further thaw, with both countries pledging to expand defense production cooperation under a three-year action plan. A separate memorandum of understanding aims to strengthen defense industry partnerships, though the joint statement named no specific projects or companies. 

Canada was a major supplier of advanced components to Turkey’s defense industry before the 2019 export restrictions, particularly imaging and targeting systems for combat drones. In 2019, Turkey was Canada’s third-largest military export market outside the United States, purchasing roughly $115 million in military goods and technology, according to Canadian government figures.

Ankara also seeks technology and manufacturing expertise to produce sophisticated components domestically and reduce reliance on foreign suppliers. 

Nuclear cooperation

Nuclear energy is another major area where Ankara hopes to benefit from closer ties with Ottawa, as Turkey seeks to diversify its nuclear energy partnerships beyond Russia through cooperation opportunities with Western partners.

Russia is building Turkey’s first nuclear power plant at Akkuyu under a $20 billion agreement signed in 2010. Its first reactor is expected to begin operating by the end of 2026.

Russia’s state-owned Rosatom will operate the plant and supply its fuel, deepening Turkey’s dependence on Moscow amid Western sanctions. In 2024, sanctions prevented Siemens Energy from delivering key equipment, delaying construction and prompting Rosatom to source replacements from China.

Turkey also plans two nuclear plants on the Black Sea coast and in northwestern Thrace, and has discussed the projects with countries including Canada, South Korea and China.

Carney said Friday that Canadian engineering firm AtkinsRealis was a strong contender to build Turkey’s third nuclear plant.

Ankara is also pursuing small modular reactors (SMRs) as part of its broader nuclear expansion plans. In March, Turkey's state-owned nuclear energy company TUNAS signed an agreement with AtkinsRealis to assess the feasibility of deploying Canada's CANDU reactor technology in Turkey. 

“Canada is an important country when it comes to nuclear energy,” Kerim Uras, Turkey’s former ambassador to Ottawa and a current senior fellow at Carleton University’s Turkish Center, told Al-Monitor. 

Beyond defense and energy, Ankara also sees opportunities to expand the international reach of Turkish businesses by combining their construction expertise with Canadian financing.

On Friday, Turkey's state-owned export credit agency, Turk Eximbank, and its Canadian counterpart, Export Development Canada, signed an agreement to support joint projects in third-country markets, particularly in Africa, the Middle East and Central Asia.

The framework opens doors for Turkish firms to bid on infrastructure, energy and transportation projects by backing regional construction capabilities with Canadian capital. "Turkey has highly capable contractors, while Canada has strong financial resources," Uras said, noting that the combination makes joint projects in third countries a strategic fit.