How Saudi Arabia seeks to contain Yemen's Houthis without provoking Iran

As Saudi Arabia grapples with the fallout from the Iran-backed Houthis' biggest attack on the kingdom in years, Riyadh has adopted a fresh strategy of carefully calibrated deterrence aimed at ensuring the unfettered passage of its exports through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which the Yemeni group has vowed to block, according to several senior officials based in the region.

In parallel, it is engaged in what one of the officials calls "hedged de-escalation" with Iran. This involves a mix of diplomacy and deterrence, as the Islamic Republic continues to restrict shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, through which most of Saudi Arabia's oil exports previously flowed.

What happened

Yemen's Houthi rebels, also known as Ansar Allah (Supporters of God), struck energy infrastructure and a military base across four Saudi cities after months of remaining above the fray of the Iran conflict. The attacks, which began early on Tuesday, injured more than 70 people, triggered blazes, paralyzed energy operations and drew a flurry of angry condemnation from Riyadh. Aramco's 400,000-barrel-a-day Jazan refinery was among the facilities damaged.

The Houthis said they had carried out the attacks in retaliation for more than 120 airstrikes across Yemen over the weekend, which they said were carried out by Riyadh.

Further alleged Saudi strikes followed in the wake of Tuesday's attacks. A Saudi military spokesman said the Saudi-led coalition backing Yemen's internationally recognized Presidential Leadership Council would "take all necessary operational measures to deter this terrorist militia."

A risky bet

On the Yemeni front, Riyadh's strategy is pinned broadly on escalating against the Houthis by ramping up support for Yemeni government forces, without getting the kingdom's own forces mired in yet another costly and messy war, the sources told Al-Monitor.

The pressure stemming from engaging Houthi forces inside the country is meant to create leverage with which Riyadh can force the militants to spare Saudi oil exports through Bab el-Mandeb and cease their attacks against the kingdom, including on Saudi oil tankers.The Red Sea waterway has emerged as a vital alternative for Saudi energy exports since the effective sealing of Hormuz.

But can the strategy succeed?

Saudi officials have been telling their foreign counterparts in recent weeks that tens of thousands of Yemeni government forces are being readied in anticipation of just such an escalation by the Houthis, at Iran's behest, the sources said. Meanwhile, Riyadh has been pressing countries to designate the Houthis as a terrorist organization.

Yemeni officials exude confidence. On Sept. 8, Yemen's deputy defense minister, Maj. Gen. Samir al-Sabri, told state-run Yemen TV that the decision to retake Sanaa had been made, as fighting continues around Jawf, Bayda, Taiz and the critical Red Sea port of Hodeidah. "There are surprises that we will not reveal now," Sabri said.

Houthi spokesman Nasruddin Amir said on X on Wednesday that Saudi-backed forces had launched 32 airstrikes overnight across Taiz, Hodeidah, Jawf and Marib.

On Tuesday, Pakistan's defense minister, Khawaja Asif, warned that the three-way Mecca defense pact signed recently between Riyadh, Ankara and Islamabad could be invoked if there were "unprovoked aggression" or a "spillover" of the conflict in Yemen into Saudi Arabia.

"This is a joint defense pact … this pact will become operational. There should be no doubt in this," Asif said.

Unnamed Pakistani sources were cited by the pro-government Turkiye Today newspaper on Tuesday as saying Pakistan would likely carry out airstrikes against Houthi forces in Yemen at Riyadh's request.

In a statement issued the same day, Turkey's Foreign Ministry said it "strongly condemned" the Houthi attacks and reaffirmed its support for Saudi Arabia's sovereignty and territorial integrity. But there have been no other statements by Turkish officials indicating that Ankara is weighing military action of any kind.

Riyadh's problem is that, with the focus squarely on Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb is a "small piece for the key players" in the Iran conflict, and while the United States has indicated willingness to support the kingdom against the Houthis, it has said it will "do so from behind," one of the officials said, leaving the Saudis badly exposed.

Symbolic strikes

To be sure, Riyadh is unlikely to invoke the Mecca pact at this time, as it remains in its infancy both operationally and institutionally. More importantly, both Turkey and Pakistan share borders with Iran, and neither wants to get embroiled in a war in which they have no real stake and which could be construed as targeting Iran.

Besides, Saudi Arabia "wants to keep the war confined to Yemen and out of its own territory, whereas the Houthis want the opposite: to carry the war inside Saudi Arabia," Qamar Cheema, executive director of the Sanober Institute in Islamabad, told Al-Monitor. As such, Riyadh is wary of any move that would lead to a full-blown conflagration, Cheema observed.

"I think the Saudis are throwing up a trial balloon with Pakistan. It would be embarrassing if they invoke the [mutual defense] clause but the other two say 'no,'" one of the officials noted.

Any Pakistani strike would be symbolic at most, the official added.

Multiple fronts

Few doubt that Iran has been egging on the Houthis to attack Saudi Arabia since July, in line with its current calculus of inflicting enough pain on the United States' Gulf allies that they in turn pressure the Trump administration to call off the war. The resulting spike in oil prices, with Brent crude hitting the $100-a-barrel mark, also works in Iran's favor ahead of the midterm elections in the United States, Tehran's thinking goes.

For the Houthis, squeezing Saudi Arabia could result in financial concessions, including access to oil revenues from government-controlled areas and compensation for losses incurred in the kingdom's seven-year war against them, which subsided after a UN-brokered truce took effect in April 2022.

The kingdom has also come under sustained attack from Iran-backed Shiite militias in Iraq, prompting Riyadh to join US airstrikes against those groups in late July. Those attacks have since subsided, as Iraq's new prime minister, Ali al-Zaidi, strives to bring the militias under control ahead of Sept. 30, when they are supposed to relinquish their arms and disband. Key Tehran-aligned groups — Kataib Hezbollah, Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba and Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada, which are accused of attacking Saudi Arabia — are refusing to do so and could resume attacks against the Saudis at any time.